一、台北市長民調數據統計表 |
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調查機構 |
調查時間 |
郝龍斌 (國) |
謝長廷 |
宋楚瑜(親) |
未決定 |
其他人 |
|
(民) |
|
聯合報 |
2006/11/4 |
44% |
15% |
11% |
23% |
7% |
|
2006/11/19 |
42% |
20% |
8% |
27% |
3% |
|
2006/11/25 |
42% |
19% |
8% |
27% |
4% |
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2006/12/2 |
44% |
17% |
8% |
26% |
5% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
40.89% |
4.14% |
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|
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中時 |
2006/11/5 |
46.90% |
17.50% |
7.60% |
24.30% |
4% |
|
2006/11/22 |
44.60% |
20.50% |
7.30% |
22.60% |
5% |
|
2006/11/29 |
48.10% |
19.70% |
5.40% |
23.90% |
3% |
|
2006/12/5 |
47.70% |
21.50% |
5.10% |
22.90% |
3% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
40.89% |
4.14% |
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自由 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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|
|
年代 |
2006/11/10 |
39.30% |
19.70% |
7.90% |
29.30% |
4% |
|
2006/11/23 |
44.10% |
18.60% |
9% |
23.10% |
5% |
|
2006/11/25 |
40.10% |
21.30% |
6.90% |
24.80% |
7% |
|
2006/11/27 |
40.90% |
20.30% |
7.60% |
26% |
5% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
40.89% |
4.14% |
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|
|
東森 |
2006/11/3 |
41.70% |
16.40% |
7.50% |
- |
34% |
|
2006/11/17 |
40% |
10.80% |
6.70% |
- |
43% |
|
2006/11/24 |
40.20% |
10.98% |
8.30% |
- |
41% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
40.89% |
4.14% |
- |
其他人包括未決定 |
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TVBS |
2006/11/11 |
49% |
17% |
12% |
16% |
6% |
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2006/11/20 |
49% |
18% |
10% |
18% |
5% |
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2006/12/3 |
54% |
20% |
9% |
13% |
4% |
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2006/12/5 |
52% |
21% |
7% |
14% |
6% |
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2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
40.89% |
4.14% |
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二、台北市長民調與選舉結果差異統計表 |
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調整後 |
調查時間 |
郝龍斌 (國) |
郝龍斌 |
謝長廷(民) |
謝長廷 |
宋楚瑜(親) |
宋楚瑜 |
|
支持度 |
落差 |
落差 |
落差 |
|
聯合報 |
2006/11/4 |
57.10% |
3.30% |
19.50% |
-21.40% |
14.30% |
10.10% |
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2006/11/19 |
57.50% |
3.70% |
27.40% |
-13.50% |
11.00% |
6.80% |
|
2006/11/25 |
57.50% |
3.70% |
26.00% |
-14.90% |
11.00% |
6.80% |
|
2006/12/2 |
59.50% |
5.60% |
23.00% |
-17.90% |
10.80% |
6.70% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
|
40.89% |
|
4.14% |
|
|
中時 |
2006/11/5 |
62.00% |
8.10% |
23.10% |
-17.80% |
10.00% |
5.90% |
|
2006/11/22 |
57.60% |
3.80% |
26.50% |
-14.40% |
9.40% |
5.30% |
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2006/11/29 |
63.20% |
9.40% |
25.90% |
-15.00% |
7.10% |
3.00% |
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2006/12/5 |
61.90% |
8.10% |
27.90% |
-13.00% |
6.60% |
2.50% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
|
40.89% |
|
4.14% |
|
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自由 |
- |
|
|
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|
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|
|
年代 |
2006/11/10 |
55.60% |
1.80% |
27.90% |
-13.00% |
11.20% |
7.00% |
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2006/11/23 |
57.30% |
3.50% |
24.20% |
-16.70% |
11.70% |
7.60% |
|
2006/11/25 |
53.30% |
-0.50% |
28.30% |
-12.60% |
9.20% |
5.00% |
|
2006/11/27 |
55.30% |
1.50% |
27.40% |
-13.50% |
10.30% |
6.10% |
|
2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
|
40.89% |
|
4.14% |
|
|
東森 |
2006/11/3 |
63.60% |
9.10% |
25.00% |
-16.40% |
11.40% |
7.20% |
|
2006/11/17 |
69.60% |
15.10% |
18.80% |
-22.60% |
11.70% |
7.50% |
|
2006/11/24 |
67.60% |
13.10% |
18.50% |
-22.90% |
14.00% |
9.80% |
|
將選委會 |
54.40% |
|
41.40% |
|
4.20% |
|
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資料調整 |
|
TVBS |
2006/11/11 |
58.30% |
4.50% |
20.20% |
-20.70% |
14.30% |
10.10% |
|
2006/11/20 |
59.80% |
5.90% |
22.00% |
-18.90% |
12.20% |
8.10% |
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2006/12/3 |
62.10% |
8.30% |
23.00% |
-17.90% |
10.30% |
6.20% |
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2006/12/5 |
60.50% |
6.70% |
24.40% |
-16.50% |
8.10% |
4.00% |
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2006/12/9 |
53.81% |
|
40.89% |
|
4.14% |
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註1:本表百分比扣除未決定者資料,調整後百分比數據與選委會計算基礎相同。 |
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註2:負數代表低估,正數代表高估。 |
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註3:黑底數據代表在百分之九十五信心水準下,超出抽樣誤差範圍之數據,代表未精準預測。 |
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三、高雄市長民調數據統計表 |
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調查機構 |
調查時間 |
陳菊 |
黃俊英 |
羅志明 |
未決定 |
其他人 |
|
(民) |
(國) |
(台聯) |
|
聯合報 |
2006/11/4 |
24% |
39% |
3% |
32% |
2% |
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2006/11/20 |
26% |
39% |
2% |
32% |
1% |
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2006/11/24 |
29% |
38% |
3% |
29% |
1% |
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2006/12/2 |
27% |
39% |
2% |
32% |
0% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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中時 |
2006/11/4 |
23.20% |
45.70% |
2.80% |
27% |
1% |
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2006/11/23 |
29% |
40.50% |
1.30% |
28.10% |
1% |
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2006/11/30 |
29.60% |
44% |
1.10% |
24.80% |
1% |
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2006/12/4 |
29% |
42.70% |
1.30% |
26.20% |
1% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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自由 |
2006/12/4 |
34.09% |
34.38% |
1.14% |
24.72% |
6% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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年代 |
2006/10/27 |
31.10% |
35.80% |
1.80% |
31.40% |
0% |
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2006/11/23 |
28.10% |
39% |
2.70% |
30.20% |
0% |
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2006/11/25 |
27% |
43.30% |
2.10% |
27.20% |
0% |
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2006/11/27 |
26.32% |
41.28% |
2.64% |
29.52% |
0% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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東森 |
2006/11/3 |
29.60% |
37.50% |
- |
- |
33% |
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2006/11/17 |
30% |
38.40% |
- |
- |
32% |
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2006/11/24 |
28.50% |
41.20% |
- |
- |
30% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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其他人包 |
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括未決定 |
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TVBS |
2006/10/24 |
30% |
49% |
2% |
19% |
0% |
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2006/11/5 |
29% |
52% |
2% |
16% |
1% |
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2006/12/4 |
31% |
51% |
2% |
16% |
0% |
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2006/12/6 |
36% |
50% |
2% |
11% |
1% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
49.27% |
0.86% |
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四、高雄市長民調與選舉結果差異統計表 |
|
調整後 |
調查時間 |
陳菊 |
陳菊 |
黃俊英 |
黃俊英 |
羅志明 |
羅志明 |
|
支持度 |
(民) |
落差 |
(國) |
落差 |
(台聯) |
落差 |
|
聯合報 |
2006/11/4 |
35.30% |
-14.10% |
57.40% |
8.10% |
4.40% |
3.60% |
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2006/11/20 |
38.20% |
-11.20% |
57.40% |
8.10% |
2.90% |
2.10% |
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2006/11/24 |
40.80% |
-8.60% |
53.50% |
4.30% |
4.20% |
3.40% |
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2006/12/2 |
39.70% |
-9.70% |
57.40% |
8.10% |
2.90% |
2.10% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
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49.27% |
|
0.86% |
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中時 |
2006/11/4 |
31.80% |
-17.60% |
62.60% |
13.30% |
3.80% |
3.00% |
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2006/11/23 |
40.30% |
-9.10% |
56.30% |
7.10% |
1.80% |
0.90% |
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2006/11/30 |
39.40% |
-10.00% |
58.50% |
9.20% |
1.50% |
0.60% |
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2006/12/4 |
39.30% |
-10.10% |
57.90% |
8.60% |
1.80% |
0.90% |
|
2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
|
49.27% |
|
0.86% |
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自由 |
2006/12/4 |
45.30% |
-4.10% |
45.70% |
-3.60% |
1.50% |
0.70% |
|
2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
|
49.27% |
|
0.86% |
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年代 |
2006/10/27 |
45.30% |
-4.10% |
52.20% |
2.90% |
2.60% |
1.80% |
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2006/11/23 |
40.30% |
-9.20% |
55.90% |
6.60% |
3.90% |
3.00% |
|
2006/11/25 |
37.10% |
-12.30% |
59.50% |
10.20% |
2.90% |
2.00% |
|
2006/11/27 |
37.30% |
-12.10% |
58.60% |
9.30% |
3.70% |
2.90% |
|
2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
|
49.27% |
|
0.86% |
|
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東森 |
2006/11/3 |
44.10% |
-5.50% |
55.90% |
6.40% |
- |
|
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2006/11/17 |
43.90% |
-5.80% |
56.10% |
6.60% |
- |
|
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2006/11/24 |
40.90% |
-8.70% |
59.10% |
9.60% |
- |
|
|
將選委會 |
49.60% |
|
49.50% |
|
0.90% |
|
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資料調整 |
|
TVBS |
2006/10/24 |
37.00% |
-12.40% |
60.50% |
11.20% |
2.50% |
1.60% |
|
2006/11/5 |
34.50% |
-14.90% |
61.90% |
12.60% |
2.40% |
1.50% |
|
2006/12/4 |
36.90% |
-12.50% |
60.70% |
11.40% |
2.40% |
1.50% |
|
2006/12/6 |
40.40% |
-9.00% |
56.20% |
6.90% |
2.20% |
1.40% |
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2006/12/9 |
49.41% |
|
49.27% |
|
0.86% |
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註1:本表百分比扣除未決定者資料,調整後百分比數據與選委會計算基礎相同。 |
|
註2:負數代表低估,正數代表高估。 |
|
註3:黑底數據代表在百分之九十五信心水準下,超出抽樣誤差範圍之數據,代表未精準預測。 |
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